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Real estate took some whacks in the new 3.8 trillion dollar Obama budget presented to Congress last week, but there were some helpful proposals for housing as well.
On the negative side, the White House renewed its efforts, which were unsuccessful last year, to rein in mortgage interest writeoffs by high income homeowners, and to raise capital gains rates.
The budget proposes to limit the value of deductions for mortgage interest and charitable contributions for single taxpayers earning more than $200,000 and married couples earning more than $250,000. It also would allow the top federal brackets to move to 36 percent -up from 33 percent – and 39.6 percent, up from the current 35 percent.
Instead of writing off mortgage interest at the top current bracket of 35 percent – or 39.6 percent as proposed in the budget – the White House would have deductions on mortgage interest and charitable contributions limited to 28 percent.
To illustrate: say you paid $10,000 in interest on your home mortgage. Under current rules, you’d be able to get a writeoff worth $3,500 in the 35 percent bracket and $3,960 if the bracket moved to 39.6 percent.
Under the Obama plan, no matter which bracket you’re in, the limit would be $2,800.
The White House proposed a similar change last year as a way to pay for health care reform, but housing, real estate, banking and charitable groups opposed it vigorously.
The same coalition would likely fight the idea this year as well. But lobbyists say the mere presence of the proposal in the president’s budget makes it a serious threat – especially when the deficit is ballooning to all-time records.
Robert Story, chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association, said limiting the mortgage interest deduction – even limited to the wealthiest Americans – sets a bad precedent and could hit high-cost housing markets disproportionately hard, especially California and New York.
Housing and mortgage groups praised other non-tax portions of the Obama budget, however, such as its effort to strengthen the FHA program.
The White House asked Congress to authorize FHA to raise its annual premiums charged to borrowers in order to strengthen the agency’s reserve funds. FHA’s annual premiums – which are typically rolled into the monthly payment – are capped at 55 basis points but the budget would nearly double them, to 90 basis points.
If Congress agrees with the move to increase annual premiums, said Stevens, the agency will be able to reduce its upfront premium charges to borrowers – thereby allowing more home buyers to qualify for an FHA loan.
Posted by Carisa – BIC, Investment Consultant and Specialist at 7:09 AM
Senior Housing
Preparing for Recovery in 2010 and Beyond
It appears, based upon activity in 4Q09, recovery in the senior housing sector has started. Approaching the end of last year, around $1 billion of tax-exempt senior housing transactions financings were completed. Practically all of those transactions had been waiting on the capital markets to re-open for twelve to eighteen months. The mix of pro¬jects heavily favored re-positioning of existing campuses along with a few new developments. Arguably, all are “legacy” projects and reflective of the market two to four years ago when those projects began their planning proc¬ess.
While some savvy sponsors have started planning for ex-pansions, repositioning, acquisitions, or new campus devel-opment during the past two years, many are still waiting on further indications of stability and recovery in their markets as well as the capital markets. Some have seen their occu¬pancy erode after years of stable operations with waiting lists due to the effects of the economy. We believe now is the time to mobilize and act to take advantage of new trends in senior housing, lower construction costs, better labor markets, and access to the capital markets.
Those now starting their planning for new capital projects, or picking up where you may have left off, should take fresh a look at their market and adjust their project positioning to reflect:
• Affordability – Today’s seniors have been particularly affected by the economy. The values of their homes may be down 20% to 50% from three years ago and while they may still have significant equity, they are feel¬ing the perception of loss and the fear of more to come.
In addition, many have seen retirement incomes im¬pacted by the economy as well. Creating a resident service program and pricing that addresses these fac¬tors is essential for success:
• Unbundling of Services – Consider unbundling of services to provide a more value driven resident pricing program. Offering a “pay as you use” service package can provide a significant com-petitive advantage over your competition.
• Lifestyle is Important, but Affordability Rules – Our advertising and sales/leasing approaches over the years have reinforced lifestyle, security, and amenities, but in challenging economic times, consumers seek “best value.” As an in¬dustry, we have done a great job selling the life¬style, the consumer “gets it”, now they want it at the best price. Be the value leader in your mar¬ket.
• Keen Attention to Competitors – Your competition is dealing with the same market trends and reacting as well. Pricing, services, programs, advertising are all being constantly evaluated and tweaked. Make sure you are constantly aware of not only what you competi¬tion is doing, but how your residents and prospects per¬ceive it. Innovators are going to be the winners in the recovery.
• Operational Trends and Opportunities – Most operators are now reporting decreased turnover, better quality applicants, and generally a greater appreciation and dedication by employees to their current positions.
However, there are other operational trends to incorpo¬rate into new project planning:
• Sustainability- The energy industry has made huge strides in the past five years in more effi¬cient technologies. Further, many states are making stimulus funds available for solar and other technologies.
• Meal Preparation and Delivery Systems – there are now several pre-prepared meal delivery sys¬tems that provide high quality food products at very competitive prices. Use of these systems can greatly reduce personnel costs and reduce storage requirements. While they may not be the solution for all communities, they are provid¬ing an alternative that is worthy of more investi¬gation
• Lower Capital Costs – We have all read about lower construction costs now available in the market, but most of the other “soft costs” associated with development of a new project have also seen significant savings. De¬sign costs, engineering services, appraisals, feasibility studies, furnishings, fixtures and equipment are all af¬fected by the market and present value opportunities for those acting now on their projects.
As we know, the planning process for senior housing and the requisite pre-sales period is time intensive. Waiting un¬til all the signals are positive means you will likely miss op¬portunities. Starting the planning now is a prudent action step. If the market slows again during the process, you have the opportunity to adjust “on the fly” and slow along with it. However, missing this window will mean higher costs if you have to play “catch up” and risk missing the de¬mand currently building as seniors have been delaying their decisions to move.
For more information please contact:
Roger Harper
615-218-4102
rharper@rharperconsulting.com
www.rharperconsulting.com
RHarper Consulting Group provides development consult¬ing, program management, and owner representation ser¬vices focused on the senior living and mixed use sectors.
In addition, Mr. Harper is a listed mediator and arbitrator and provides dispute resolution services for the construc¬tion and real estate industries.
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An amazing event at the International Builders\’ Show earlier this month promises to change the industry\’s financing structure forever and breathe new hope into the industry.
Home Building Recovery Predicted for 2010
Published on Friday, January 1, 2010, 1:52 AM Last Update: 7 hour(s) ago by Kimbrough Gray
Category: All Articles » Economy and Politics
Single-family construction is expected to be at the top of the list of new construction recovery by 2010.
Economists from Freddie Mac, IHS Global Insight and National Association of Home Builders all agree that new home construction will begin to recover by the third quarter of this year and increase dramatically into 2010.
Kermit Baker, chief economist for the American Institute of Architects (AIA), noted that the current state of the economy is sending mixed messages. Housing upstarts are up, but consumer confidence is down. He said that this is typical when nearing a turning point in the economy.
Construction of single-family homes was at an all-time low in January of this year, and figures only improved slightly through July of this year. According to Kenneth Simonson, economist for Associated General Contractors of America (AGC), the bottom fell out of the construction industry last September with a record number of layoffs. States hardest hit were those where housing construction was a primary means of employment.
States that were host to a housing boom suffered even more. Nevada, for instance, lost 23 percent of the state’s construction employment; California lost 19 percent and Florida is down by 16 percent. Arizona suffered the most with 26 percent less jobs in construction employment. All these states were where job reduction was the result of the struggling housing market for home building businesses, along with the subcontracting companies that worked for them.
One economist forecasts growth in 2010 for new single-family starts will be in the range of 528,000 and multi-family starts will be 135,000. The thought is that construction spending will grow 10 percent in new single-family homes; although he cautioned that the construction climate will continue to resemble a recession for the next one-and-a-half years. Construction on approximately 375,000 single-family homes is expected to begin by the end of 2009.
If growth does continue on the upswing for new construction, then builders will have to prepare themselves and their wallets for increased material costs. For the remainder of 2009, however, it is anticipated that builders will continue to enjoy a period of reduced pricing.
Chief Economist for Moody’s Economy.com Mark Zandi predicts that the market will level out in the area of housing starts and that by the end of 2010 the numbers will return to 1 million units. That growth is anticipated through 2011. Based on the stabilization of the banking industry and adjusted consumer spending, Zandi anticipates the current economic recession to end sometime this year.
Simonson forecasts increases for overall building material costs to be between 6 and 8 percent, including concrete, asphalt, gypsum, copper, steel and all other applicable materials. Since materials for construction require physical transport, the industry is vulnerable to price volatility, transport schedule flux and fuel price changes.
As economists look into their crystal balls, it appears that there certainly is a consensus. The winds of change are on their way to bring improvement in the area of new construction and, more specifically, new single-family construction.
Friday, January 15, 2010
I found some incredible news for investors…
Friday, the FHA has suspended the 90-day anti-flipping rule for 1 year, effective February 1, 2010. So for at least the next 12 months, FHA buyers can obtain loans on properties that have been recently purchased by investors.
This is great news for investors trying to flip properties to FHA Buyers! For the next year at least, you wont’ have to sit on your laurels waiting for 90 days on title before you can even GO TO CONTRACT with a buyer.
Here’s the first article I read about it: “HUD TAKES ACTION TO SPEED RESALE OF FORECLOSED PROPERTIES TO NEW
OWNERS”
Here’s the actual PDF from HUD that makes it official and takes you through the grueling details…if you like that sort of thing.
How about that, FHA just got a little less sucky. For now. And just a little. Apparently there are a few details to be aware of, such as if the resale is 20% higher than the investor’s purchase, you’ll have to pony up some proof to an independent appraisar that renovations and repairs justify the higher price.
But that’s just good standard practice to have handy as a flipper these days anyway.
Will this make your life easier, or what?
http://redpill.turnkeywholesalebiz.com
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Currently at $999K obo. Appraised at over $2M. Next years recovery could take it to $3M and with the addition of an approved carriage house which adds garage and 2-4 suites could go to $4M
Pay attention to the furnishings! They all stay!
http://picasaweb.google.com/carisabic/MBGrandHome?feat=directlink
Email me if you have trouble with the picassa link.
Carisa L Majesky
CarisaBIC@gmail.com
